The shipping industry should still keep cautious in 2018
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- Time of issue:2020-03-16 10:02
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(Summary description)
The shipping industry should still keep cautious in 2018
(Summary description)
- Categories:Trade News
- Author:
- Origin:
- Time of issue:2020-03-16 10:02
- Views:
The global shipping industry should still keep cautious in 2018 to maintain the progress that have made though it obviously changes to a positive side.
BIMCO said recently that the economic growth in Europe, Asia and the USA has increased a lot since mid-2016. In 2018 global GDP growth rate has been slightly higher at 3.7 percent than the data 3.6 percent in 2017.
In 2018, if the ship continues to maintain its deceleration, the basic market balance of the bulk transport industry may be further improved.
For the transportation industry, the improvement in 2017 will continue to 2018 and the growth rate of fleet appears to keep balance with demand growth.So there is no possibility that the large-scale increase in freight rates to improve the fleet's profit.
For the oil industry, there will be a potential development space for crude oil and refined oil fleets to benefit from a slowdown in fleet growth.
The growth of market demands and the rising oil consumption as well as the price arbitrage and other factors promote the rebound in oil trade.It is subject to a more balanced oil market.
Global GDP growth is expected to maintain its 2017 growth rate in 2018 which will last until 2022 BIMCO cited the data from IMF. However, The world trade growth rate is expected to fall from 4.2% in 2017 to 4.0% in 2018.
BIMCO says the shipping industry has adapted well to lower market demand growth in the past few years. The challenge for the shipping industry is to continue to adapt to the level of demand without significantly increasing the market. 2018 is likely to be the first year since 2011, when the first shipping industry earnings rebound, but earnings are not expected to pick up quickly.
BIMCO predicts that in 2018, the challenge for bulk ship owners and operators will continue to keep the ships slow down. Market capacity is expected to grow by about 1 per cent in 2018, down from 3.2 percent comparing with 2017.
The net growth rate of crude oil market will reach about 2% in 2018, which is down from 5.1% in 2017, while the growth rate of market capacity of refined oil tanker market is expected to be 1.8%, down from 4.2% in 2017. The market is expected to show some signs of rebound in 2018 due to higher freight rates and less volatility in the market compared with 2017. The net growth of the container ship market in 2018 is expected to be 4.1%, up from 3.3% in 2017.
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